How we count seats that changed party
The district map can put a check on each district that changed party since 2024. Today that's 49 seats: 48 R → D, 1 D → R.
Counts as of Nov. 6, 2026, 8:42 p.m. ET.
See them on the map →What a check means
The party leading the district in 2026 is different from the party that won it in 2024.
Same lines: 31 seats
Most districts kept their 2024 boundaries. There the comparison is direct: the same voters, two elections.
Redrawn states: 18 seats (est.)
9 states drew new district lines for 2026. There the same seat number can now cover different voters, so we count a seat only when its estimated change on the new lines points the same way as the party change. The map marks these “(est.)”.
Not counted: 4 seats
These changed party because of new district lines, not because voters moved. 3 of them are Republican gains from new maps.
| Seat | Party change | Estimated change |
|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | R → D | R+1.7 |
| LA-06 | D → R | D+14.4 |
| TN-09 | D → R | D+20.3 |
| TX-32 | D → R | D+15.2 |
Caveats
The 2026 counts are unofficial, and a leading party hasn't won until the race is called. The estimate for redrawn districts uses the 2024 presidential vote on the new lines, not a House race.