How we estimate the change
The district map can colour each district by how far its margin moved since 2024. This page explains what that compares, where a comparison isn't possible, and how the estimate fills those gaps.
Counts as of Nov. 6, 2026, 8:42 p.m. ET.
See the change since 2024 (est.) →What “Change since 2024” compares
For each district, Change since 2024 is the change in the two-party margin from the 2024 House race to the 2026 House race. The two-party margin counts only Democratic and Republican votes: (D − R) ÷ (D + R). A positive change is a move toward Democrats.
It uses two-party margins because the 2024 tally leaves out minor-party candidates in most districts, so margins over all votes don't compare across the two years.
2024 was a presidential year, when turnout was higher. Comparing a midterm with a presidential year is part of what the change measures.
Where there is no House comparison
9 states drew new district lines for 2026: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah. In those states a district number now covers a different place, so its 2024 House result doesn't describe the same voters. That's 173 districts.
Another 1 district keeps the same lines but had no Democrat-versus-Republican House race in 2024. The Change since 2024 view shows these as “No 2024 comparison” and doesn't colour them.
The estimate
Change since 2024 (est.) keeps the House change wherever there is one (240 districts). For the other 174, it uses the 2024 presidential (Harris vs Trump) result in the same district, on the 2026 lines, as the starting point:
estimated change = 2026 House two-party margin − 2024 presidential two-party margin in that district
Presidential results by congressional district on the 2026 lines come from The Downballot, 2024 presidential results by congressional district (2026 lines), calculated from official precinct and county returns, retrieved Nov. 6, 2026, 2:12 p.m. ET.
21 districts have no Democrat-versus-Republican race in 2026, so no estimate is possible there.
What the numbers show
| Baseline | Districts | Median change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 House race | 240 | D+14.1 |
| 2024 presidential vote (estimate) | 174 | D+15.9 |
| All | 414 | D+14.7 |
Of the 414 districts, 409 moved toward Democrats and 5 toward Republicans.
Caveats
- An estimate compares a presidential race with a House race. Candidates, incumbency and ticket-splitting differ between them, so an estimated change isn't the same measurement as a House-to-House change. The map marks estimated districts with a faint diagonal hatch over their colour.
- 2024 was a presidential year with higher turnout than a midterm.
- The 2026 counts are unofficial, and about 93% of votes are counted (an outlet's estimate). Figures for districts still counting can change.
- Each hexagon is one district; positions within a state are approximate.